There’s 69. ES Support Line (nope) or Neck Line?

Posted on July 19, 2019 by lunker1

7BE6CD9F-DD90-4F61-B9C2-ED533EED522B

Possible H&S
Neck Line Breakdown at 2976
100% Target 2922
51% Bulkowski Target 2948.5

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130 Responses to There’s 69. ES Support Line (nope) or Neck Line?

  1. asaraniti (@asaraniti) says:
    July 24, 2019 at 4:53 pm

    Good afternoon all. From my post this morning, /ES blew through both profit targets. Therefore, /ES is now trading in extensions. The first setup is on the chart. The 61.8% extension long is 3013.66. This level is very important…..as long as /ES stays above 3013.66, /ES will continue to rally. Should /ES break 3013.66, the first support level is 3008.50.

    Bottom line…..3013.66 bullish above and additional weakness to a support level below.

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  3. tryingtomakeabuck says:
    July 24, 2019 at 2:19 pm

    Houston, your cleared for central bank Launch. enjoy the ride

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  4. tryingtomakeabuck says:
    July 24, 2019 at 12:45 pm

    good call Phill . Bulls are in full charge. never easy to short, but back to long. 3035 by tomorrow

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  5. phil1247 says:
    July 24, 2019 at 9:48 am

    if you went long premarket at 2999 es as suggested

    ….raise stop now from breakeven
    and keep trailing

    i dont want ANY pullbacks any more

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  6. chrisk44342 says:
    July 24, 2019 at 9:29 am

    https://invst.ly/beben

    Yesterday’s rally made it to 618 target. subsequent retrace/rally terminated at the high and broke the bull. Now monitoring hourly closes https://invst.ly/bebg9

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  7. tryingtomakeabuck says:
    July 24, 2019 at 9:24 am

    Inflection point. 3006 was not over lapped yet. Until it does still bearish potential. I have no position. Will go long over 3007 cash. If we sell off, would be looking foe 2960 area for a long. I could see either case. Would also prefer a big sell off today to 2960, European banks tomorrow should juice the markets.

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  8. phil1247 says:
    July 24, 2019 at 9:09 am

    cave man wave count

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  9. asaraniti (@asaraniti) says:
    July 24, 2019 at 7:04 am

    Good morning all. The overnight session broke one 15 minute short setup but there are other anchors one can use as well. There are two long setups drawn on the chart. /ES appears to be testing and defending the 15 minute, 61.8% long setup at 2995.52…that’s bullish.

    The second larger setup has the bull/bear 61.8% long line in the sand at 2984.40. As I mentioned in last nights post, bonds are rallying, which is bearish for equities. However, /VX had a counter trend rally up to a 50% short and is decline off that level….bullish for equities.

    Bottom line ….
    1. Conservative setup, /ES 2984.40 bullish above and bearish below.
    2. Aggressive setup, /ES 2995.52 bullish above and additional weakness to a lower support level below.
    3. From my post last night, if the aggressive setup fails, There are other 15 minute setups that /ES could rally off of before testing 2984.40. The point is, don’t think if 2995.52 breaks the next level to watch is 2984.40.

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  10. quickrick38 says:
    July 24, 2019 at 6:51 am

    I do believe that “patience” is the call of the day.

    Good Luck All

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    • quickrick38 says:
      July 24, 2019 at 6:58 am

      Lunker, if you don’t want this on the site…I understand. Not market related. Not intended to be political either…just something that astounds the daylights out of me; the city council of Berkley just banned natural gas starting in January. Say what???!!!???

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  11. rikki_rocket1893 says:
    July 24, 2019 at 5:18 am

    Still looks like a wave b bounce, short with stop at 3020 cash level

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  12. quickrick38 says:
    July 23, 2019 at 7:15 pm

    Just another way of looking at this (mess):

    Good Luck All.

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  13. asaraniti (@asaraniti) says:
    July 23, 2019 at 5:15 pm

    Good afternoon all. Currently, /ES is trading no mans land, in between a profit target of this long setup at 3012.81 and a 15 minute, 50% long at 2999.38. The corresponding 61.8% long is 2997.22. Bonds are trading a 50% long and /VX is in counter trend rally up to a 50% short. For these reasons, I would give a slight nod to the bears in the overnight session.

    Want to make this clear, there is no current entry, long or short. Trading this algorithm…..one has to wait for. /ES to test the 50% long and it is defending…that is your entry or if the profit target is tested but doesn’t go through….then I would expect a minor pullback to the next 50% long entry……and that is your entry.

    One last word re: my reply posts today…there is an art and a science to drawing up anchors. At times it straight forward. However, if you see a previous high or low that this algorithm has been trading off…BINGO…keep that setup on your screen as the algorithm maybe trading off that level. The algorithm can simply be ignoring a high or low secondary to a news announcement and the
    Previous technical high or low is what this algorithm is trading off. I know I am confusing some, all I am saying is don’t be so rigid in selecting and keeping a set of anchors when /ES isn’t trading off that level. Experiment a bit, go to another level, high or low to see if the algorithm attached itself to that technical level. This is where IMHO, DH excels and one of the main reasons why I trade with his setups.

    Bottom line 2997.22…bullish above and additional weakness to a lower support level below.

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  14. asaraniti (@asaraniti) says:
    July 23, 2019 at 10:01 am

    Travis..outstanding great to hear.

    There is an updated bull bear line in the and for this mornings trading at /ES 2989.89 that just broke along with /YM and NQ. Would expect a CTR of about 6 point at any time, perhaps to test 2996/7…lets se what happens if we get there. However, the targets below for /ES is 2991.42 and todays gap.

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    • asaraniti (@asaraniti) says:
      July 23, 2019 at 10:23 am

      BTW, there is a profit target of the 15 minute short at 2989.26 in addition to the two other targets outlined above.

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      • asaraniti (@asaraniti) says:
        July 23, 2019 at 11:10 am

        …well the 6 point CTR came and went? /ES is starting to sell off a bit now. Don’t trust this as the CTR did break the short…sloppy trading? If it was sloppy trading the targets are 2990.75 a double bottom, 2988.33, a profit target and todays gap.

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      • chrisk44342 says:
        July 23, 2019 at 11:20 am

        Hi Asa, I don’t follow this line of reasoning- maybe i am not understanding DH properly. The larger hourly short failed when 618 was closed above and broken. I would think anyone following retracements this AM should be looking for longs? If I look on the 15 min chart we have a series of traditional longs up from 69, the most recent of which is measured from 89 to the top. https://invst.ly/bdvd0 Now, in DH terms, this most recent long likely failed, but i see it the other way around. Bulls defended 93 and bears were trapped at false breakout to the downside.

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        • asaraniti (@asaraniti) says:
          July 23, 2019 at 11:39 am

          Hi chrisk

          From my morning post, there was a updated 61.8 short at 3002.87. /ES never traded to that level, only to 3001. From that high, /ES started to sell off, the decline broke a 15 minute long and sold off to 2990.75. From posts above, I was expecting a counter trend rally, CTR. The high anchor was todays high at 3001 and the low anchor was 2990.75. That that is why I ballparked up to a 6 points CTR to 2996.

          That CTR actually exceeded the 61.8% SHORT at 2997.08…that’s when I opined, “sloppy trading” because it sold off from that break. /ES came back up for a second test and that CTR traded to the 61.8% SHORT at 2997.08 but did not break the short by 1 full tick. /ES is now selling off from that second test of the 61.8% short at 2997.08.

          Targets below are unchanged from my posts above.

          Hope tis helps.

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          • TA.Stockman H says:
            July 23, 2019 at 4:01 pm

            Thanks, ASA.
            I see your point.

            Likewise, the 5MIN SMA (-) alignment went (+) at 2995.50 (12:45p ET).
            That confirmed a potential bias to the upside, and as we see, prices zoomed past 2998 to 3006.
            That crossover alignment could have whipped back below, so it’s not always valid, but IMO, once the 5MIN SMA aligns whichever direction (+) or (-), one needs to consider getting out of the position if opposite the alignment. (Or look for another entry point for one’s bias.)

            Now, the 40SMA on the 5MIN is at 3001 at 3pm ET.
            If the 10SMA crosses below the 40SMA, we go (-) again and prices below come into play.
            Likewise, given that prices haven’t exceeded the 78.6% retracement (@3011.94) of the entire move down to 2969.5 from 3023.5, downside is still possible.

            As mentioned earlier, if we close above 3001, the 4HR SMA will align (+), so all intermediate timeframes will be (+).

            [NOTE: The -23.1% extension at 3008.43 was reached (anchors 2969.5 – 3001). Usually a pullback to the 23.1% – 38.2% is likely before higher prices – DH’s measured move.]

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  15. travis01 says:
    July 23, 2019 at 9:49 am

    All – wanted to reply and give our sincere thanks. I am a big believer in positive thoughts and prayer…”Ask and ye shall receive”. I saw the truck pass me in the ditch and called my wife in the car to hear her screams and I ran back on the interstate to find my family in the van. Nothing will ever prepare you for that, nor watching your child leave in a medivac. Humbling and awesome to read the 100s of texts, posts, messages over the past days. We got some rather dire reports Sat, but continuous improvement daily. Addie can move her legs now, the skull fracture seems to be minor enough and in a place to avoid brain surgery, able to speak now, the liver place turned out to be a fatty spot, and last night the blood clot just disappeared! That was the big item left. Months of rehab expected but really great news. She turns 8 on Friday. Thanks and be blessed! T

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  16. tryingtomakeabuck says:
    July 23, 2019 at 9:27 am

    Looks like we are off to the races. 3018 5 waves down to 2973. Up to 3006 then 3 waves down to 2976. Overlap 3006. Correction is over and move higher into end of July. So appear we are going to open up around 2998 cash. See what happens

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    • amberwavesofgain says:
      July 23, 2019 at 10:14 am

      Hard to believe minute ii is finished. My indicator shows still going down on daily analysis and hourly appeared to reach top at 10 am ET. Sometimes takes awhile for Otis to get on the elevator before it goes down. I have a small short position but probably not making many trades before Fed announcement.

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    • TA.Stockman H says:
      July 23, 2019 at 10:33 am

      Bull anchors: 2969.5-3001
      38.2% retrace: 2988.97 (potential bounce to 2996 first)
      50% retrace: 2985.25

      I say we bounce off 2989 and head higher.
      30MIN SMA are (+).
      1HR SMA are (+).
      RSI for 5MIN is oversold

      NOTE: We could continue lower as the bear move was not broken.
      3001 is the 78.2% retracement of bear anchors: 3009.75 – 2965.50
      Therefore, for this bull move to continue,
      2981.53 (61.8%) or 2976.24 (78.6%) must not be broken. Your choice.

      I say 2981.53 because the 1HR 40SMA is at 2987 area, so going down to 2981.53 and sustaining that price (no V bounce) would probably result in an SMA realignment to (-) for the 1HR.

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      • TA.Stockman H says:
        July 23, 2019 at 10:39 am

        In essence, the 1HR SMA show (+) alignment, so trend is UP.
        Therefore, unless the fib retracement prices get breached and/or the 1HR SMA’s realign (-), prices can go down a little and then proceed higher.
        Watch 2981.50, 2985.25 and 2988.97 price levels for potentially (+) reactions.
        Why? The bias is UP.

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        • TA.Stockman H says:
          July 23, 2019 at 11:00 am

          Oh, yeah. Forgot (thanks, ASA, for your post below).

          The bear move from 3023.5 to 2969.5 is the intermediate major move. DOWN.
          The 68.2% level is 3002.87.
          The 78.6% level is 3011.94.

          Until the 78.6% is exceeded (3011.94), there is still a potential for a reversal to the downside (even if the 1HR and 4HR have (+) SMA alignments).
          However, the SMA alignments show trend (or continuation of longterm, so one could trade bullish to that level from 2989 (if we get back there today) and wait and see, or take the SMA alignment (or 68.1% breach as gospel and hold the long position.
          Of course, you could plot your extension fibs from the 2969.5 low and find a bull target to get out at. 3009 area?

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      • TA.Stockman H says:
        July 23, 2019 at 10:43 am

        Also, based on FIB retracements, for this bull move to confirm, 3001 (78.6%) must be taken out. I use 78.6% as my final stand. Others use 68.1%.
        When 3001 is taken out (no inverse V move; sustained prices above), the 1HR and 4HR will both be in (+) SMA alignment.
        Currently, only the 1HR is (+).

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      • TA.Stockman H says:
        July 23, 2019 at 11:01 am

        sorry, 2969.5 not 2965.5
        *3009.75 – 2969.5

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    • tryingtomakeabuck says:
      July 23, 2019 at 2:25 pm

      well at 3007 there is an over lap of 3006 and at 3008 that is the .786 retrace so over 3009 bulls win. at 3002. so 7 points. see what last 90 minutes has in store

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  17. asaraniti (@asaraniti) says:
    July 23, 2019 at 7:03 am

    Good morning all. Travis, my thoughts and prayers for your daughter and to your family….praying for a speedy recovery.

    Not surprised by the overnight rally in /ES. Historically, equities are bullish going into a FOMC meeting where a rate cut is expected. Bonds and /VX, weakness, hinted at strength in equities in the overnight session.

    DH has drawn up several long setups. Take notice of /ES 3002.87, this level is both a 61.8% short as well as a profit target of one of the long setups. I think this level will act as a magnet for /ES in this mornings trading…….and the final bull/bear level. Trade above this level and /ES, will trade to new higher highs. If /ES stays below 3002.87 the bears still have a shot (low probability).

    Can’t r/o a quick trip to 2988.25, a 15 minute long, to re-fuel the rally, that can lead /ES to test the 61.8% short at 3,002.87.

    Bottom line….3002.87 is the bull bear line in the sand.

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  18. asaraniti (@asaraniti) says:
    July 22, 2019 at 5:30 pm

    Hi lunker…just posted a afternoon update …can you please release it.

    Thanks.

    Tony

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  19. asaraniti (@asaraniti) says:
    July 22, 2019 at 5:28 pm

    Good afternoon all. A boring range bound day today. /ES tested the 50% short at 2989.63 and that level was defended to the tick and /ES declined off that level. Later on this afternoon, /ES tested both the 50% and the 61.8% short and those levels were defended. Bonds may not be offering any help to the equity bears and /VX is trading in no mans land, doing its own thing.

    Because there was a 20 point ramp from the low, DH drew up a 15 minute long, as well as the larger short.

    Bottom line…

    1. for the bulls /ES has to break the 61.8% short at 2994.22. Targets are last weeks highs and a new all time higher high.
    2. for the bears, /ES has to break the 15 minute, 61.8% long at 2977.14. If it breaks, /ES will test the overnight low at 2969.50. Below that level, is a very important 50% long at 2960.

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  20. quickrick38 says:
    July 22, 2019 at 12:48 pm

    We definitely got the bounce I was looking for this morning.

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  21. Hooks77 says:
    July 22, 2019 at 11:39 am

    Phil, are you following GBTC anymore. On the daily it looks like it is bouncing around the 38 special of the whole climb from February.

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  22. chrisk44342 says:
    July 22, 2019 at 11:31 am

    https://invst.ly/bdaxq waiting for hourly closes and P/A to see which scenario wins. Right now it looks better for the bears but i don’t trade that way

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  23. travis01 says:
    July 22, 2019 at 11:00 am

    All, please don’t clog the board with responses but I do ask for a quick prayer for my daughter. We were involved in a terrible car accident Sat morning coming home from vacation when a tractor trailer failed to brake into stopped traffic on the interstate. Thank God he swerved but he destroyed the van and my oldest daughter (7) was airlifted to ICU with a fractured skull, severe brain trauma, and a blood clot. The 5 yo twins were unharmed. Doing better but will be a while. Appreciate positive thoughts and prayers. Travis

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  24. asaraniti (@asaraniti) says:
    July 22, 2019 at 6:41 am

    Good morning all. This mornings analysis is pretty straight forward. The anchors are Friday’s high and low. The 50% short is 2989.63. The corresponding 61.8% short is 2994.37.

    Bottom line /ES 2994.37 bullish above and additional weakness to lower support levels below.

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  25. kvilia says:
    July 20, 2019 at 7:55 pm

    Yes, Phil, correct. I expect to trade hwb but saying that the fail point is at .618 $2842.
    Disregard decimals, even crazier, Investing.com shows different highs depending on the chart pulled, so it’s just an approximate number.
    I see now what you mean by 38% special, just could not figure it out from your chart.
    You know what you are doing, actually much better than I do. I am way too slow when it comes to decision making 🙂
    To sum up, I also am going to watch 38% special and 50% retracement, that’s where ES should end wave 2 of 3, otherwise it is ABC that started October (if remember correctly) of last year, which I don’t believe given the Fed turned dovish now.

    I also want gold to correct and reverse to take out that big short you are showing. Then it could be huge 🙂

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  26. kvilia says:
    July 20, 2019 at 1:13 pm

    The problem is charts being considered without a time frame in mind. Even Phil’s charts (with all due respect, Phil 🙂 ) point only to a certain scenario, e.g. latest SPX chart shows bull above $2950 in reference to the extension. Well, If the extension fails, there is also hwb support for the whole 1 of 3 move with bull above $2942. Everyone needs to understand this differentiate the short term perspective and longer term trading setup. Examples below:

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    • phil1247 says:
      July 20, 2019 at 3:34 pm

      k
      do you mean to say …….

      .618 support at 2842

      instead of

      hwb support for the whole 1 of 3 move with bull above $2942. ?

      if so i reference that by pointing out the 38 special of that fib which is 2912

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      • phil1247 says:
        July 20, 2019 at 3:35 pm

        you have it as 2911.39 … but i dont use decimals
        within 1 full point is good enough for me

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      • Slapdash says:
        July 20, 2019 at 5:45 pm

        Phil, do you have a couple of sentences to describe your ’38 special’. I undestand it as a setup you feel gives you and edge. And roughly what I think its mechanics are.

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        • phil1247 says:
          July 20, 2019 at 9:08 pm

          slap

          its just a 38% retrace .
          …38 SPECIAL was one of my favorite bands

          its important is because it shows you how aggressive the bulls are
          if they are so eager to buy before it retraces to .5 or .618
          it tells you they are afraid of missing out on the upside

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        • phil1247 says:
          July 20, 2019 at 9:10 pm

          i replied but dont see it yet
          will reply again if it does not appear tomorrow

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        • phil1247 says:
          July 21, 2019 at 2:11 pm

          repost
          38 special just means 38% retrace
          it is the name of a rock band i liked
          if the retrace is only to 38% before taking off to new highs
          it tells me bulls are afraid of missing out and are very eager to buy

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  27. phil1247 says:
    July 20, 2019 at 12:38 pm

    no problem
    he flip flops all the time
    its no big deal
    he should just admit he is a day trader
    and has no clue about the long term

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  28. phil1247 says:
    July 20, 2019 at 12:30 pm

    es

    nothing has changed for the last 2 weeks
    you have been in a traditional long
    the target at 3028 was nearly reached but no cigar
    ergo risk continues to be to 2950 until 3028 is hit

    cave man sez…
    ending diagonal has broken the lower rail
    and then rockets back up to kiss goodbye
    if 2950 gives way look for 2912 ( 38 SPECIAL of last wave up )

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  29. quickrick38 says:
    July 20, 2019 at 11:41 am

    Here’s my count and I’m sticking to my guns:

    For those of you who don’t like trading on EW or wave counts, that’s fine. For me, personally, I like to count the waves – not because I’m so great at it but because when my count is wrong and the market shows me it’s wrong, it makes that very clear and I know immediately to get out. Otherwise, I might sit on that position and end up with a losing hand. This way, I know exactly when to stay and when to get out.
    How much more of this drop I’m going to get to take advantage of…depends on how much more of it gets chewed up Sunday night. I agree with Lunker that we have a Head & shoulders pattern. They only pan out some percentage of the time but THIS time I thing this one is going to work. The projected path for that takes us to very near the .382 retrace. Specifically around 2915. I’m not saying it will stop there. I’m saying it will drop at least that far. Furthermore, I suspect we might get a bounce going into Monday morning. I’m guessing that might start around 2960. If so, above that would provide a nice entry point.
    Good Luck All

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  30. phil1247 says:
    July 20, 2019 at 10:16 am

    chris
    those who are following DH 15 min es are getting chopped up
    you have to adapt it to the environment you are in which is now overlapping chop

    first i go to 30 min and hourly bars
    also i rely on cave man analysis more ie
    simple breakdown and retest of support levels ( yellow lines )

    also you have to watch SPX cash
    more important than decimal levels on es is the
    cave man picture now
    when we have extensions …………DH is the only way to trade
    now ….it doesnt work so well

    adapt or die

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  31. chrisk44342 says:
    July 20, 2019 at 9:19 am

    This is why i focus on hourly closes and bang the table on price action. observe the hourly spx relative to ES. On SPX, we opened above 618 at 3k, sucking in many bulls, and closed above it. However, where was the follow through? If one had simply waited to confirm the fib breakout via price action, they would have been spared the trap. https://invst.ly/bcebv

    Looking at ES, the bullish view was trading the bounce off of .382 https://invst.ly/bcecr since the prior bearish retrace failed.

    The wise course of action would have been to sell half the bullish position at the prior high and adjust the stop for the rest to B/E. In this case I did not sell half and got sucked in with the rest of the bulls when i saw the move in the cash market eclipse the 618. I didn’t lose but played this like an amateur and should have known better.

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  33. cj32 says:
    July 19, 2019 at 8:34 pm

    Cr. to CBZ , see expanded Tweet.

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    • lunker1 says:
      July 20, 2019 at 3:18 pm

      anyone that posts here needs to be an open book. we are very fair and we share. we challenge for good reason. debate is positive but unfortunately you’re not him so you can’t comment

      so follow his twitter

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  34. chadthundercockthethird says:
    July 19, 2019 at 6:38 pm

    Holding short over the weekend, glad I didn’t listen to coolbiz’s flip flop this morning

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    • lunker1 says:
      July 19, 2019 at 10:22 pm

      Yeah he flip-flops a lot and there is negative value when he posts several hours after the fact that he flipped short when he was just pushing the bullish case. Tweets are real time but I never see any from him.

      He might be the best trader in the world and a great Elliott waver but the tweeting after the fact isn’t cutting it so he ends up just being more noise.

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      • phil1247 says:
        July 20, 2019 at 9:23 am

        lunker
        cool biz / cj
        should just admit he is a day trader ..and there would be no problem

        his long term counts flip flop which is a BIG no no ….

        you know even this CAVE MAN
        has said BIG picture 3050 straight up since january
        even tho i may flip flop daily and even intraday………..

        i have no problem with cool biz daily flip flops

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        • lunker1 says:
          July 20, 2019 at 10:14 am

          The problem is is that he is misleading. He shows his extremely high success rate trading and says there’s only one Elliott wave count. pounds the table about a certain direction bullish or bearish indicates he’s trading in that direction but then when he sees something different he doesn’t post until well after the fact. Similar to several other “successful” traders on blogs. so his information is definitely user beware.

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        • lunker1 says:
          July 20, 2019 at 10:15 am

          phil you’re one of the few that live and post in realtime

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