May 15 2018 Blog is Open

There is no limit on the number of posts. Market related posts only. No opinionated posts or debates on news/political events and no Trump bashing. There are other blogs for that. Thanks.

Get well soon Tony

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Posted in SPX | 3 Comments

TGIF

Post away…….!

Posted in SPX | 9 Comments

Monday Monday…..

Last night es hit 47.75 and this AM retraced to 36.5. Different action than we’ve seen lately. FYI there’s no limit on posts here so feel free to use the space for sharing your set ups, ideas, charts etc. I like to keep my finger on the pulse and some of you do a great job with that.

Posted in SPX | 9 Comments

Major Melt Up!

I’m speechless….

Discuss!

Posted in SPX | 39 Comments

Melt Up

Tony added 2731 pivot

http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in SPX | 85 Comments

Hump Day

SPX -D on 60min RSI5.  From the count I posted yesterday I think one more 20 to 30 point down move and a final wave up for Int 3. Will see.

 

Posted in SPX | 65 Comments

TGIF

Interesting sell off on Russian oil 4 NK?

BTD?

Hope you’re hanging in there Tony. Get well soon.

Posted in SPX | 165 Comments

Tony’s group can chat here

Posted in SPX | 200 Comments

Tony’s OEW group feel free to post here

Posted in SPX | 123 Comments

Complex H&S

snp

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EOD TUES

from 1981
w1 2071=91
w2 2042
w3 =1.62×1=2189
w4 =38%x3=2133 pivot
w5 =1=2224 P3 OR INT 1 (243)

INT 2 =62%x1=2073
INT 3 =1.62×1=2467 (394)
INT 4 =38%x3=2317
P3 2560

Posted in SPX | 1 Comment

WEEKEND UPDATE

4 Hour Candles keep you in the trade.
Bubble? What Bubble?

SPX Daily Forks

IWM Daily Breakout
This week I heard people say “no way I’m going long up here”!
There is no up here.
Close below upper red line is stop.

Posted in Forks, IWM, SPX, Weekend Update | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

WEEKEND UPDATE

IWM DAILY
DIAMOND CONTINUATION BREAKOUT.
QUAD TOP…BREAKOUT OR BREAKDOWN?

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WEEKEND UPDATE

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THURS EOD

weekly close above 2052 is bullish

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WEEKEND UPDATE

WEEKLY

DAILY

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EOD WED

WEEKLY

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EOD TUES

WEEKLY

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EOD MON

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WEEKEND UPDATE

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EOD THURS

really liking the 4hr candlesticks to identify swing changes and keep me in the trade thru the bumps. best of all it’s simple. I’m done w over thinking.

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EOD WED

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EOD THURS

from 1988 low almost perfect fib c=a 21-9-21 up to 2021

intraday down from 2021
a=2021-1999=22
b=2016.5-1999=17.5
c=2016.5-22=1994.5=26.5 to complete abc of A

B=1994->2004=10

now in C
targets
C=.62A=1987.5
C=2021-34=1987
C=A=1977.5
C=2021-55=1966
C=1.62A=1961

Weekly 34EMA = 1984
from 2064 5=1=1980
from 2057 C=.62A=1978
H&S = 1975
from 2094 C=A=1962

clusters at 1987, 1978, 1961/2
60min candle body resistance at 2000
30min candle body resitance at 2003

Posted in SPX | 9 Comments

EOD TUES REVISED

from 1973
w1 2012 = 39
w2 1992 = 20
w3 2094 = 102 = 2.62 w1

w4 targets
2078 bottom pivot
2077 top pivot
2074 w4 = w2
2070 23.6% of w3
2070 pivot
2065/66 EMAs
2063 bottom pivot
2055 38.2%

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EOD TUES

1973 pivot
1972=2061-89
1967=2056-89
1966 bottom of pivot
1963 top of pivot
1962 weekly 34ema
1962=2017-55
1956 pivot
1949-51 fibs
1949 bottom of pivot

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EOD THURS

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INTRADAY THURS

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EOD WED “DOW LEADS UP”

In Big Up/Down Land it seems if I have this right that SPX confirmed a Daily Big Down on Dec 1 but it was negated today w the new ATH. The R2K Daily Big Down is still in play. Interestingly the Dow didn’t trigger a Daily Big Down Dec 1 because it closed in the upper half of it’s trading range and then made new highs Tues so it’s Big Up from October is still in play. The Dow is leading up. Normally that’s a good sign.

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EOD MON

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WEEKEND UPDATE “INDU H&S”

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EOD WED “INDU H&S” ?

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INTRADAY MONDAY “DOW FORKS SIGNAL TOP” ?

the forks perfectly caught the October bottom.
maybe this is a ST/MT top.

Posted in Forks, INDU, Intraday | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

THURS EOD “TOP NEAR?”

If 1869 was w1 and 2001 was w4 then .62×1=2031 and 5=1=2049. 2031 lines up with 2035 fork target.

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WEEKEND UPDATE

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INTRADAY WED “MAJOR B?”

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EOD TUES

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EOD MONDAY “GAP AND CRAP?”

a quiet top here
1821+144=1965
1878+89=1967

or

Gap to 1973/1980 and Crap
Sept 18 flatline pennant then Fri 19th gap n crap.
Sept 4 gap n crap

Posted in EOD, SPX | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

EOD THURS “TOP?”

1927+34=1961
1821+144=1965
1878+89=1967

_______SPX

_______INDU

Posted in EOD, Forks, INDU, SPX | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments

EOD WED #2 “BUT THE DOW…”

seems to confirm 1927 (16460) was THE test of support.
or is it all too perfect?

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EOD WED “CURVEBALL TIME?”

perfect 21(fib)ish down from 1949 to 1927
plus a perfect backtest of the green median line.

but is it too perfect?
maybe look for a curveball here?

how about 34 down to 1915?
1. spooks the bulls into stopping out
2. backtest red median line
2. 60min 34EMA 1915
3. 60min 89EMA 1917
4. Daily 13EMA 1916
5. Weekly 34EMA 1918
maybe…

Posted in EOD, Forks, SPX | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

INTRADAY WED

another 20 point drop like 1898-1878 (fib 21pts) would give a test of the prior 4th at 1929. then 34 up to 1963 to end the bounce?

pivot to pivot
1821 (bottom of 1828)
1869 (pivot)
1835 (top of 1828)
1898 (1901 pivot)
1878 (top of 1869) fib 21
1949 (bottom of 1956)
1929? (pivot) fib 21
1963? (top of 1956) fib 34
1965=1921+fib144
1966? (bottom of 1973)
1967=1878+fib89

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EOD TUESDAY

I’m still selling into this rally. 1955/6 or 1965/67 are targets.

Daily 34EMA=1942
62% Major A=1943

1956 PIVOT AREA
Weekly 13EMA=1951.
C=A(1898)=1955
5=1.62X1(1869)=1956
2.62=1961

1973 PIVOT AREA
1821+144=1965
1878+89=1967

Posted in SPX | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

EOD MONDAY

I took some off the table on the AH pop to 1910 area.

Was A 1869 or 1898? Or was 1869 wave 1?
Showing all options.

1901 PIVOT AREA
5=.62×1(1869)=1908

1821+89=1910
60min 89EMA=1910
Daily 13EMA=1910
1878+34=1912
C=1.62A(1869) or 3=1.62×1=1913
62% Int B=1913
Weekly 34EMA=1917

1929 PIVOT AREA
50% Major A=1920
1835+89=1924
C=.62A(1898)=1926
5=1=1878+48=1926
1878+55=1933

Daily 34EMA=1942
62% Major A=1943
Weekly 13EMA=1945

1956 PIVOT AREA
C=A(1898)=1955
5=1.62X1(1869)=1956
2.62=1961

1973 PIVOT AREA
1821+144=1965
1878+89=1967

Posted in EOD, SPX | Tagged , , , , , , | 2 Comments

WEEKEND UPDATE

1821+89=1910
C=1.62A or 3=1.62×1=1913

2.62=1961
1821+144=1965

Posted in Forks, INDU, SPX, Weekend Update | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

INTRADAY THURS “DOW FORKS SAY MAJOR A DONE”

Can’t believe I didn’t see this yesterday. Too busy w day job. 😦  A perfect touch to complete the red forks move. It doesn’t get any more textbook than this.

Watching SPX for possible nested 1,2’s up from 1821.
wave 2 of 3 targets 1839, 1844/5 and 1850.
39 works the best

Posted in Forks, INDU, Intraday, SPX | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 14 Comments

EOD WED “V AND B”?

V bottom and now B up?

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LONG TERM UPDATE “SPX FORKS”

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EOD TUES #2 FORKS

up then down or down then up?
+D makes going a up more of a possibility.

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EOD TUES

pretty much same as yesterday but now also +D on 60min

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EOD MON

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Weekend Update

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EOD THURS #2 “BULLISH FORKS”

SPX stopped right the intersection of red and green (like it should have)
X marks the spot
now up to purple or red?
or continue down to lower red?

Posted in EOD, Forks, SPX | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

EOD THURS “CLUSTERS”

2 good target areas for Major A.
for the first, watch for +D on the 60min
it also matches up w the little H&S on IWM that targets 105.3

Posted in EOD, SPX | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

INTRADAY THURS “VFR – VISUAL FLIGHT RULES ONLY”

Wow. Crazy market. Seems like we’re in the Bermuda Triangle now so T/A (“Instruments”) are challenged to track and predict the extreme swings so keep your hands inside the windows and simply watch the price (wildly swing lol). The +D on the 60min and Daily INDU (and Daily on everything else) looked promising and still may be. 1925 looks like either Int A or Minor 2 with 1970 being Minor A or Minute 1. From 1970 if 1925 holds could be Minor B or Minute 2.

If 1925 fails then is seems 1970 was Int B and then would be in Int C down to 1912, 1876 or 1818 with .62A, A and 1.62A.

For the move down from 1970
A=1952
B=1959
C=1.62A=1930=88.7% retrace
1925=78.6%

Posted in Intraday, SPX | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

TUES EOD #2 “Fork Save?

last night I posted “a test of the top of the 1929 pivot (1936 near 78.6%) would shake the bulls.”  here’s why.

INDU – today’s low was C?

X=17351
A=16674
B=17099=61.8% XA
C=16716=88.7% AB
D=1.62XA=17762
D=3.62AB=18216

SPX ~2077-2115

Posted in Forks, SPX | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

TUES EOD #1 “Bulls Still Have a Chance”

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MON EOD “IHS TARGET HIT”

Hit the IHS target at 1979 and got a backtest of the diamond but was that INT B or Minute 1? or is Int B still in progress?

need to see where next divergence is
if this is P4 I’m leaning that Int B is already done.
a test of the top of the 1929 pivot (1936 near 78.6%) would shake the bulls.

Posted in EOD, Forks, SPX | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Weekend Update “Stick a Fork In it?”

25,000+ views since Aug 28th!  Thanks!!!

yellow forks caught the top and bottom.
will red cap Int B?
IHS target 1979

click on charts for larger view

Posted in SPX, Weekend Update | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 9 Comments

THURS EOD “P or D?”

that’s the old tennis saying. spin the Prince racket on the ground and let it fall to see who serves first. the P is on the bottom of the grip. it means is up or down.

3 important areas of resistance at 1949ish. as long as 1949ish holds there’s more down
62% of 1905->2019
38% of 1985->1926
the LT resistance TL

afternoon had a small H&S targets 1937 and the 62% from 1926->1952 is 1936 so could see support. past 3 days have set up an IHS that targets 1979

1926 could be all of C (Minor 2?) or just a of C and 1952 was b of C

1915 is the c=.62a and also the H&S target.

Posted in EOD, SPX | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 10 Comments

Morning Update

Since 8 AM there’s already been a sharp 10 pt selloff from the highs and SPX will open below the blue line. New targets listed on chart inc H&S. Click chart for larger view.

Posted in Intraday, SPX | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 14 Comments

EOD “ARG!!! Down She Goes…”

the blue support gave way, got backtested and held so maybe more down to come.
1929/30 looks like about right. or watch for another 21 bounce to 1963.

Counts have been modified. Click chart for a larger view.

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Intraday “You Sunk My Battelship!”

lost 1964 so closed all longs and went short.
watching 1947/9 for possible next support

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EOD “Last Chance Saloon”

watching for an 88.7% to 1966…cheap long

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“Beware of the Diamond Dogs”

SPX formed a diamond similar to the last 5 days of January which then broke in move down. This one could be good for 22ish point move either way so targets 1942 and 1998 (the 62%)

1964 + 21 (fib # and the 38%) = 1985 high today

23.6% 1977
38% 1985
50% 1992
62% 1998

Posted in Intraday, SPX | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 8 Comments

EOD

Well the ole blind squirrel called 1964 LOL. +D on daily rsi5 is a great entry for a swing trade. Sittin at LL practice so no charts now but I’m leaning to this being minor 3. I don’t see any good bullish reason to go below 1964 so count seems pretty clear. I guess Int A could go to 1950/55 TL but then the bounce would only be a B. watch 1985.

23.6% 1977=support?
38% 1985
50% 1992
62% 1998

Posted in EOD, SPX | Tagged , , , , , , | 11 Comments

Minor 2 Done 1964?

+D on 60min and daily RSI5. INDU forks completed move to green median like. Chart price not updated for today but you get the idea. Or maybe just Int A is done? need to see if get buy confirmations on daily the next 2 days.

Posted in INDU, SPX | Tagged , , , , , | 4 Comments

INDU Fork

from ATH the yellow forks show 1st rebound was held by its median line
the orange forks show the 2nd rebound was held by its median line too

the pattern says price should make a lower low
and the pattern could repeat w the next median line providing resistance
the ultimate target would be the lower green line

yellow could provide support or price could continue up to the top of orange or green.

Posted in Forks, INDU, Weekend Update | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 9 Comments

Weekend Update

Bearish Red count is the same but I changed the bullish count. If 2019 isn’t P3 the next likely target above it is the 2050 area. Looks like an ED could fit. So that’s the Blue count.

Posted in SPX, Weekend Update | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Forks

both INDU and SPX are calling for a slightly lower low to like 1964.
this would also give the 55 fib # down from 2019.

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EOD

so far things are textbook.

Sept 16 chart

Sept 19 chart

I’m cautiously bullish for at least a HWB to the 1991 area. Why?
(EDIT this)
Instead I should say this looks like an area for bounce
and that bounce could be 8, 13, 21, 34 points (fib #’s)

the expanded flat hit my ideal target of 1966 where C=1.62A.
+D on 60min RSI5

1979+21=2000  21 a fib #
2000-1966=34 a fib #
2019-1966=53. close to fib # 55.

Posted in EOD, SPX | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

High Road or Low Road?

Paused at median line. decide…
coil, drop or advance?

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EOD

The backtest of the old blue wedge is nicely bullish.
A run of the 1978 stops would nicely mess everything up.
We got one curveball with the strong drop from 2019.
Still think there might be another with a LL for Minor 2.
We’ll see…

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Forkville USA

SPX has completed a perfect “measured fork move” with the purple set.
might bounce here.

But it also might want to complete a larger move to the blue median line.

Posted in EOD, SPX, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

EOD

SPX closed at an ideal spot 1983
C=2.62A
88.7% of 1978 to 2019
Lower BB at 1982.5

Plus a small +D on 60min RSI5

we’ll see if it reverses here.

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EOD

today’s low 1991 same as July high.
small +D on 60min RSI5 same as 1978 low.
small bullish wedge at lows.

Posted in EOD, SPX | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

Weekend Update

Blue count terminates at P3 2019 and is now Red for P4.

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EOD

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Noon Update

Blue count says P3 at 2019.
New Orange count is nested 1,2s

Neg D 60min RSI5.

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EOD

Blue count is looking for a P3 top by 2019 max where Minute 5=3.

Black count is looking for a Minute B high to be followed by a Minute C low to complete Minor 2. This count targets 2100-2200 for P3.

Green count is looking for a Minute 1 of Minor 5 to end and then Minute 2 down. This count best fits reaching the 2050 P3 fib targets.

Posted in EOD, SPX | Tagged , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Intraday

Bearish stuff
1. SPX double -D on 60min RSI5
2. SPX hit 70 on Daily RSI5. a good rollover point.
3. hitting bottom of 2019 pivot
4. INDU stuck at 141.4 of 17162 -> 16938 = 17256. still could make expanded flat
5. QQQ at 88.7% of ATH
6. I’ve got a TL and median line at 1977-79 which work well for a flat or expanded flat

Bullish stuff later

Posted in Intraday, SPX | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment

EOD

As I wrote about intraday, SPX did drop to the EMAs for support at 1993/4/5. A very nice bullish 1,2 and then rocket off in wave 3 right? well strong -D on 60min RSI5 resulted in a fast drop from 2010 to 2000. crazy day!

so was this 1,2 1,2 with a big wave 3 to come?
or 5 waves up for Minute 1 and now retrace for Minute 2?
or was this Minute B with a nasty Minute C down to finally finish off this Minor 2? or even Pri 3?

well to scare the bulls, INDU perfectly hit the 127.2% extension of the move from ATH to recent low, as would be expected with an expanded flat. So the market could keep reversing from here and make new lows. But the recent downward wedges weren’t backtested so perhaps a deep Minute 2 is coming to that before reversing? Either way a SPX move above 2011 and NAZ close above 4568 should seal the deal for the bulls.

Posted in EOD, SPX | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

Noon Update

INDU is leading w new highs, SPX looks good but needs to clear 2011 to elminate the possible bearish leading diagonal from 2011 down to 1978 and the NAZ needs to close above Friday’s close of 4568 and the 13DMA at 4570 to be bullish again.

Does this bounce have technical merit? The Dow’s 60min RSI5 had triple positive divergence and SPX had +D as well. Some will say that the Daily didn’t have +D so this is a false rally. Not true. It isn’t required. Just look at chart history.

The weakness in the NAZ is likely the Alibaba IPO effect which is just a short term situation. The Dow leading is a good sign but by early next week the Nasdaq needs to follow through.

Posted in Intraday, SPX | Tagged , , , , , , | 7 Comments

EOD

4 Options:

1. ST BULLISH/MT BEARISH. Blue Count. 1978 was Minor 4. 5=1=2018=Pri III (or to 2050) then down to 1700s.

2. MT BULLISH. Blue Count Modified. 1978 was Minor 2. Pri III = 2050-2200

3. ST BEARISH/MT BULLISH. Black Count. 1978 was Minute A of Minor 2 and perhaps 2003 for Minute B, then C=A=1970 then up to 2050-2200.

4. MT BEARISH. Red count. 2011 was Pri III and down she goes.

The INDU new high points to scenario #1 or 2 but NAZ/IWM/MDY lagging points to #3 or 4.

Posted in EOD, SPX | Tagged , , , , , | 4 Comments

Noon Update

INDU at the 88.7% 17137 and SPX at the 61.8% 1999 from ATH to recent low. B wave? NAZ in b of C with c of C down next? IWM not moving much. I’m cautious here.

Posted in Intraday, SPX | Tagged , , , , , | 7 Comments

EOD

quiet day for SPX but not for NAZ which now 38%+ retrace of it’s entire Aug/Sept move and almost 50% of it’s “minor 3”, so now I’m 50/50 on the Minor 4/Minor 2 count. SPX had a small +D on 60min RSI5 so maybe a lil pop for b of C (done or needs to hit 1991?) before a lower low for C with stronger +D to complete Minor 2? also got a C=A today on IWM from Thurs high and SPX retraced 38% of Minor 3 to 1980ish so maybe today was the low?

Posted in EOD, SPX | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Weekend Update

Below 1977 first Alt becomes Primary count.
Below 1916 second Alt become Primary count.


Posted in SPX, Weekend Update | Tagged , , , , | 7 Comments

EOD Revised

Below 1977 first Alt becomes Primary count.
Below 1916 second Alt become Primary count.

Posted in EOD, SPX | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

EOD

Below 1977 first Alt becomes Primary count.
Below 1916 second Alt become Primary count.

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Morning Update

1988 is near 62% for wave 2 off 1983 low but watch for lower low w +D (positive divergence) on 60min RSI5.

88.7% 1984.5
34DEMA = 1979

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EOD

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Afternoon Update

Thanks for 10,000 views in my first 2 weeks!
I hope this blog is helpful.

Primary count and 2 Alt counts are labeled.
Primary is in charge until 1980 the 38% of Minor 3.
Below 1980 the first Alt is then the Primary count.

60min 34EMA 1996.26
High 1996.25

Posted in Intraday, SPX | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

AAPL Update

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AAPL Bullish Butterfly?

Hit the .382 .887 and 1.272 literally to the penny.

http://thepatternsite.com/ButterflyBull.html

Posted in AAPL, EOD | Tagged , , , | 5 Comments

EOD

Descending Broadening Wedge for C of Minor 4?

Posted in EOD, SPX | Tagged , , , , | 10 Comments

Noon Update

Any thoughts? See any clues for direction?

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EOD

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Afternoon Update

typo ALT MINOR 4 C=A=1986 not 1996

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Weekend Update – Revised

Posted in SPX, Weekend Update | Tagged , , , , | 3 Comments

Weekend Update

EDIT:

a twist to the count that’s on these charts that I’ve been mulling over has more merit than I had originally thought possible..
if 2008 was B of 4 then:
C=A=1987
38% Minor 3 = 1979
C=1.62A=1974

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 12 Comments

Friday Update

Thanks for 5000+ hits in less than 2 weeks!

Bullish
1. 4 to the previous 4th
2. Bounce off 13EMA

Bearish
1. -D RSI5 60min, Daily, Weekly, Monthly
2. -D MACD 60min, Daily, Weekly
3. 60min MACD dipping below zero

cheap short at 2008?
if this is wave 5 up I think 2000 has to show itself as support

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Afternoon Update

Ok here’s all I got. SPX went stop hunting this AM at 1990 to complete a 21 point down move and looks perfectly like Minor 4 retracing to the previous 4th but it still doesn’t look right. All moves since 1985 have been within 1 pt of a factor of 5. 20 up to 2005, 14.5 down, 20.5 up and now 21 down. So here we are at 14 up at 2004 and now I’ve gone to cash at the 62%. Maybe hit 2005/6 but I think 15 will hold it. If it keep going up to 20, 25, 30 no problem I’ll wait for wave 2 to get long again because this impulse needs to prove itself to me. Also 60min RSI5 is getting close to downward resistance TL. The leader NAZ is weak barely above the 38%. Same w IWM. MDY is the only one that looks possibly like a real 1,2 from last week’s low. INDU is the strongest w a 70% retrace so far and didn’t make a lower low just like it didn’t make a higher high yesterday, so you could say it’s one big triangle since the 26th or that was a super deep wave 2 just holding the low. It all just smells pretty fishy so I’m out.

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EOD

2011 Pri III, Minor 1 done or Minor 4 done?

1992.5 completes ABCDE triangle with a 1994/5 base. Tri’s are seen in wave 4. Was this a complex 4 flat/tri combo now done at 1992.5?

One clue is SPY DIA NAZ QQQ IWM all bounced at .887 of prior low to ATH. If 1992.5 fails then count isn’t valid and ST MT top in at 2011.

Other messy count what if 1990.5 to 2011 was a Minute 1 LD and this drop Minute 2?

60min RSI5 again bounces off 30 level?

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Afternoon Update

If INDU Minor 4 ended Tues it now has nested 1,2’s. Perhaps the SPX Minor flat ended Tues as well at 1995? Then:

Minute 1 2009 (14)
Minute 2 1998
Micro 1 2011 (13)
Micro 2 2004 (so far)

this would give
Micro 3 2026
Micro 4 2018
Micro 5 2031

or
Minute 3 2031/2035 (2.62 x 1)
Minute 4 2018/2021
Pri III 2032/2035

same 2030 target area with upside to 2035.

The bullish twist to all this is, what if everything is off by one degree meaning we’re about to finish Minor 1 instead of Minor 5?

this would give
Minor 1 2030 (125)
Minor 2 1953
Minor 3 2155 (202)
Minor 4 2078
Pri III 2203

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Morning Update

If nested 1,2s
2121 Micro 3
2112 Micro 4
2126 Minute 3
2113 Minute 4
2030 Minute 5

if Ending Diagonal
2009 A
1998 B
< 2016.5 C=A?

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EOD

A choppy mess! So how to count it?
Either nested 1,2’s or the beginning of an ED.
EDIT – Also like the Expanded Flat option below.

Nested 1,2’s
2006 Minute 1
1995 Minute 2 (71% retrace)
2009 Micro 1
1998 Micro 2 (78.6% retrace)

Ending Diagonal
2009 Minute A
1998 Minute B where c=.62a (a=2009 to 1999=10)
or c=a=1994.5
Minute C would be above 2009, then D and E.

Tomorrow need to see if Minute B has ended.
A move below 1995 would knock out the 1,2s.

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Morning Update

Had a feeling they would gap it. Assuming ATH here are calcs from 1990.5 Minor 4.

Regular Count
Minute 1 = 2006 = 16.5
2 = 1995
3 = 1.62 x 1 = 2022
4 = .382 x 3 = 2012
Minute 5 = 1 = 2029

Minor 5 = 1 = 2031

Pri III = 2029/2031
————————-

Conservative Count
Minute 1 = 2006 = 16.5
2 = 1995
3 = 1 = 2012
4 = .382 x 3 = 2006
Minute 5 = .62 x 1 = 2016

Minor 5 = .62 x 1 = 2015

Pri III = 2015/16

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EOD

Scenarios from Bullish to Bearish

1. Minor 1 done at 2006. Minor 2 down to 1945/55. Minor 5 targets 2007/2017 or 2140-2160 area. Possibly very bullish, possibly not. Extended 1st waves (Minor 1) can mean waves 2-5 are short.

2. Minute 4 done at 1991. Micro 1, 2 done. Now in Micro 3. Minute 5=1=2027 then retrace to 1991/94 for Minor 4. Then Minor 5=1= Pri III =2031/34.

3. Minor 4 done at 1991. Minute 1, 2 done. Now in Minute 3. Minor 5=1= Pri III =2031.

4. Minor 4 not done and making a flat or triangle or combination. Similar to most of July’s sideways chop. Various targets 1991/1980 before Minor 5 begins. c=a=1991 and C=A=1991. C=1.62A=1982.5

5. Pri III done at 2006.

Thanks for 2000+ views in my first full week!

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Noon Update – Pri III?

3 or 5 waves up from 1991? SPX new high at 2006. Technically this could complete Pri III. Neg D on RSI5 60min, Daily, Weekly, Monthly. But is it Pri III?

Was 1991 Minute 4 or Minor 4?
Minor 4 regular flat C=A=1990 target?
Minor 4 expanded flat C=1.62A=1981 target?

Was 2006 Micro 1 of Minute 5?
Was 2006 Minute 1 of Minor 5?
From 2006 C=1.62A=1996, C=2A=1994.

NAZ made higher highs Friday and today so was does it’s count look like? Last Mon-Thurs looks like an expanded flat. Could be the same for SPX. If so was 1991 Minor 4? I think so because 1995->1985 looks like Minute 4.

So is 2006 the end of Pri III? Maybe.
Was 2006 Minute 1 of Minor 5. Maybe.
Is Minor 4 making a flat? Maybe.

First confirmation below 1990.52.
Second confirmation below C=1.62A=1981 if expanded flat for Minor 4.

New high confirms Minute 2 of Minor 5.

Posted in Intraday, SPX | Tagged , , , | 19 Comments

Weekend Update

Per my Thursday EOD, SPX closed at 2003.4 the 88.7% retrace of 2005 to 1991 for a possible end of a B wave of Minor 4.

So now:
C=A=1989 to complete Minor 4?
or Minor 5 up?
or Minute 5 of Minor 3 up?

If 1990.5 holds I’d be leaning that we’re still in Minute 5 of Minor 3, unless…
2005 is breached only to 2008/2011 then watch for a expanded flat C wave down to 1985/87 to complete Minor 4.

We’re likely in the latter stages of Int V of P3 so no need to be a hero here.
Have a great weekend!

Posted in SPX, Weekend Update | Tagged , , , | 10 Comments

Noon Update

If the 1990.5 low holds until a new high I’m leaning towards it being Minute 4. If SPX reverses here at 2003ish I’d call that the start of a B wave for a Minor 4 flat. The .887 from 2005 is 2003.4. Have a great weekend and be safe. 😀

Posted in Intraday, SPX | Tagged , , , | 6 Comments

EOD

SPX -3 (-0.17%)
Open 1997
High 1999
Low 1991
Close 1997
EMA’s 1995, 1991 x2, 1967

From yesterday’s EOD “Or if small c isn’t done at 1996 lower targets are
c=a=1994
c=1.62a=1990
which could complete the entire abc Minor 4 or just A of ABC.”

It appears the low 1990.5 finished off either little c of A or big C of ABC to complete Minor 4. There was a slight +D on 60min RSI5 and SPX rose 8 points (fib #) in an wedge/leading diagonal shaped rise to put in the high at 1998.5 and then price faded in choppy rounded top.

Kudos to Quo Vadis who observed that 1990.5 is the 14.6% fib for all of Intermediate V. FWIW the 23.6% is 1982. From 2005 to 1991 I see a Double ZZ of abc x abc. Minor 2 also looks like a Double ZZ (or maybe a ZZ/Flat combo) so w alternation Minor 4 should be a flat, triangle or complex. Because of this I’m watching for a large B wave now to help create the flat or triangle. 13pts (fib #) added to 1990.5 gives the 88.7% retrace of Minor 4 so it works well in the situation and is something to watch for. An Expanded Flat with a B wave above 2005 would really mess things up. But perhaps Minor 4 is done and up goes Minor 5.

Sorry no charts yet but I’ll crank em up soon.
Comments and discussion are always welcome!

Posted in EOD, SPX | Tagged , , , , | 23 Comments

Morning Update

per yesterday’s EOD update.

“Or if small c isn’t done at 1996 lower targets are
c=a=1994
c=1.62a=1990
which could complete the entire abc Minor 4 or just A of ABC.”

There’s slight +D on 60min RSI5 at this morning’s 1990.52 low. the 60min 34EMA might provide resistance at 1995. The 23.6% of Minor 3 is 1987 and the Daily 13EMA is at 1981.

Posted in Intraday, SPX | Tagged , , , | 17 Comments

EOD

Open: 2001 Hi: 2002 Lo: 1996 Close: 2000

EMA’s: 1995, 1979 x2, 1963, 1954

similar to the three prior pullbacks since the 1905 August low, the SPX 60min RSI5 pulled back to the 30 area and then rebounded. the pullback from 2005 is a small abc.
a 1998
b 2001
c 1996

if the 1996 low holds then perhaps:
2005 was Micro 1 of Minute 5
1996 was Micro 2 of Minute 5
if SPX impulses up through 2005 and 2007/8 fib cluster area then Minor 3 appears to be extending to 2020-2050.

If price doesn’t impulse up then either: this small abc might be the A of a larger ABC . B would target 2001/2 (50%/62%) and then C would move below 1996 where:
C=A=1992/3
C=1.62A=1986/7

Or if small c isn’t done at 1996 lower targets are
c=a=1994
c=1.62a=1990
which could complete the entire abc Minor 4 or just A of ABC.

looking 5min chart the past 2 days look like a Rounding Bottom. there’s an elliptical look to the highs and lows. could still make a lower low to 1994/5 and the pattern would hold.

http://thepatternsite.com/roundb.html

Side note: Bulkowski’s target is 2050 by 9/15.

Market comments and discussion are welcomed!

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Hello World!

testing testing 123

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